Mirroring the uneven economic recovery, the housing market is expected to move in a slow, gradual upward path in 2012, while encountering its share of speed bumps along the road, according to a forecast presented by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) on the housing and economic outlook.

While the latest monthly housing data have shown signs of a slight softening, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said this is more reflective of typical month-to-month volatility in the numbers and unusual seasonal factors than they are an indication of any significant downward trend in the broader housing market.

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National vacancy rates in the first quarter of 2012 were 8.8 percent for rental housing and 2.2 percent for homeowner housing, according to the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau. The rental vacancy rate of 8.8 percent was 0.9 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in first quarter 2011 and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The homeowner vacancy rate of 2.2 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than first quarter 2011 and 0.1 percentage point lower than the fourth quarter rate.

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The S&P/Case-Shiller national composite fell by 3.8 percent during the fourth quarter 2011 and was down 4 percent compared with the fourth quarter 2010. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites fell by 1.1 percent in December compared with November, and posted annual declines of 3.9 percent and 4 percent versus December 2010, respectively. With this latest data, all three composites are at their lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid-2006.

In addition to both Composites, 18 of the 20 MSAs saw monthly declines in December compared with November.

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 (1985=100), up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88 from 76.7 in January.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was more favorable in February. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased slightly to 13.3 percent from 13.2 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased to 31.2 percent from 38.3 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also less pessimistic. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased to 6.6 percent from 6.2 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 38.7 percent from 43.3 percent.

Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term outlook than they were last month. The proportion of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.7 percent from 16.7 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 11.8 percent from 14.6 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18.7 percent from 16.4 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 16.9 percent from 19.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes improved to 15.4 percent from 13.8 percent.

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California home sales declined from both the prior month and year in January, according to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The median price also was lower, primarily due to a sales increase in the distressed market.
Making sense of the story
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 517,740 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.

January’s sales were down 0.6 percent from December’s 520,940 pace and down 5.7 percent from the revised 548,760 sales pace recorded in January 2011. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2012 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home fell to $268,280 in January, down 6.7 percent from $285,920 in December. The median price also dropped 3.9 percent from the revised $279,220 median price recorded in January 2011.

“The decline in the January median home is largely a reflection of an increase in the share of distressed home sales,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Seasonal factors in the non-distressed market also played a role in the softening of the median home price, as prices typically decline in the non-peak home buying season.”

California’s housing inventory rose in January, with the Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes increasing to 5.5 months in January, up from 4.1 months in December but down from the 6.8-month supply in January 2011. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

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With interest rates at historically low levels, many borrowers are finding value with a reliable fixed-rate mortgage. However, borrowers who think they could be relocating in the near future, or need to shore up savings, might want to consider what some regard as the next best thing: An adjustable-rate mortgage that offers several years at a fixed interest rate.

Making sense of the story

Hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, originated in the jumbo-loan marketplace at the end of the 1980s. They fell out of favor – along with the riskier ARMs that offered extremely low teaser rates and interest-only components – after the subprime mortgage market collapsed.
Some adjustable-rate mortgages have an interest rate that changed every year, but a hybrid – also known as a delayed first-adjustment ARM – has a fixed interest rate for a period of time. Most loan officers refer to a hybrid by the period during which the rate is fixed. A 5/1 loan, for example, has a fixed rate for five years, then adjusts annually for the remainder of the term; a 7/1 loan adjusts after seven years.
ARMs account for only a small segment of the overall mortgage nowadays, financing just slightly more than 10 percent of home purchases. However, market share for hybrid loans is expected to increase to 14 percent this year, according to an annual survey released last month by Freddie Mac. The 5/1 hybrid was the most popular adjustable-rate loan product in the market, according to the survey. The least popular was a 3/3 ARM, which adjusts once every three years.
A common reason for choosing a hybrid ARM is projected length of homeownership. It’s a nice option for buyers who don’t expect to stay in their home for longer than three to five years.
Rates on hybrid ARMs are also attractive. As of last week, the average rate on a 5/1 loan was 2.81 percent, compared with 3.88 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, according to Freddie Mac.
Borrowers should be aware though that with rates starting at rock-bottom levels, there’s generally only one direction for them to go. And even though there are caps on the rate change amount, the jump could be as much as six percentage points.

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Homeowners who had a mortgage loan on a primary residence and who believe were financially harmed during the mortgage foreclosure process by GMAC Mortgage, HSBC Finance Corporation, SunTrust Mortgage, or EMC Mortgage in 2009 or 2010 can request an independent review and potentially receive compensation.

The review is intended to determine if borrowers suffered financial harm directly resulting from errors, misrepresentations, or other deficiencies that may have occurred during the foreclosure process. The servicers are required to compensate borrowers for financial injury resulting from deficiencies in their foreclosure processes.

A number of servicers supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) are also required to conduct independent reviews.

Borrowers are eligible for an independent foreclosure review if

the property securing the loan was the borrower’s primary residence;
the mortgage was in the foreclosure process (initiated, pending, or completed) at any time between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010; and
the mortgage was serviced by one of the mortgage servicers listed here.
There are no costs associated with being included in the review; the review is a free program. Borrowers should beware of anyone who wants payment to assist with the independent foreclosure review or any other foreclosure assistance program.

Requests for review by the servicers’ independent consultants must be received by April 30, 2012. Borrowers are encouraged to carefully consider the information about the review program to determine if they are eligible to participate.

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The U.S. Census Bureau of the Dept. of Commerce announced yesterday that construction spending during November 2011 increased 1.2 percent to an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of $807.1 billion compared with October. The November figure is 0.5 percent above the November 2010 estimate of $803 billion.
During the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $724.8 billion, 2.5 percent below the $743.6 billion for the same period in 2010.

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U.S. homes are expected to lose more than $681 billion in value during 2011 – 35 percent less than the $1.1 trillion lost in 2010 – according to analysis of a recent Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.
The bulk of the total value lost during 2011 was in the first half of the year. From January to June, the U.S. housing market lost $454 billion. From July to December, Zillow projects residential home value losses will total a significantly lower $227 billion.
Regionally, only nine out of 128 markets showed gains in home values during 2011.
The majority (92 percent) of markets analyzed for the report showed home value losses for 2011. The biggest home value losses, in terms of total dollars lost in 2011, were in the large MSAs of Los Angeles (down $75.5 billion), New York (down $44.8 billion), and Chicago (down $41.7 billion). The large overall losses were due to the high number of homes in these metro areas, along with decreases in median home values.
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Data through October 2011, released Tuesday by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, showed decreases of 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October compared with September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual declines of 3 percent and 3.4 percent versus October 2010, respectively.

In October, both Composites and 14 MSAs – Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington DC – saw their annual rates improve compared with September.

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